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Is It Possible To Win At Online Betting?

If you’ve ever been lured to gamble and you’ve seen the way that casinos and bookmakers stack their odds in your favor. The most obvious example is roulette which has 36 black and red numbers, plus the green numbers zero and (in the U.S.) the number 00. That’s 38 options for you to choose from. If you bet on black or red the odds of deciding correctly are 18/38. an acceptable payout for a stake of $1 is $2.111. The house, however, pays just $2 and retains the difference. This way it is guaranteed the possibility of earning a profit.

Similar biases are evident in the odds offered by bookmakers on soccer, horse races, and any other sporting event. They always make sure that the odds favor their side. However, determining these odds are more difficult than for roulette, as the calculations are more complicated.

This raises an intriguing possibility. Can we find an improved method of calculating the odds and outdo the betting houses?

Today, we have a solution through the efforts of Lisandro Kaunitz from the University of Tokyo and a couple of other friends, who have discovered a way to earn a steady income through the betting market online for soccer.

However, their research comes with an important limitation. Kaunitz and co. claim that once the bookmakers became aware of the achievement, they stopped the researchers from making further bets.

Gamblers have for a long time played with strategies to beat odds, but the success rate is uncommon. This is because bookmakers are able to determine precise odds. They usually employ teams of statisticians who study the historical records of a particular sport such as soccer, and then create sophisticated models to calculate the best odds for each game.

Kaunitz and co. say that, as far as they are aware, no one has ever been able to defeat this system through the development of better statistical algorithms.

However, despite this advanced approach there is a flaw in the method bookmakers operate. It is due to how they cover their bets against the risk of huge payouts.

For instance, when two teams compete in a game of soccer, bookmakers determine the odds for each team to record either a loss or win or draw. Sometimes , large numbers of players are betting on an outcome due to reasons not related to odds. For instance, a team could be more popular than anticipated for instance. In this case the bookmaker is guaranteed to pay a huge amount if the outcome happens.

Therefore, bookmakers can protect their bets by offering better odds for the outcome that is not favorable. This way, they can attract bets that will cover at least a portion of possible losses.

Kaunitz and co. say that this method also provides an opportunity for anyone who is able to recognize it. The technique that researchers have perfected is to devise an approach that consistently identifies odds that favor the punter more than the bookmaker.

The method they employ is simple. They begin by assuming that bookmakers themselves are adept in determining odds and their prices reflect the actual odds of winning, drawing or loss, as well as the margin they own.

In this case the best way to measure the probabilities is an average of odds offered by the bookies in general–a type of collective wisdom. This is the result of the average odds that Kaunitz and co claim is an extremely precise reflection of the actual chances.

It is then a straightforward task to look over all the odds offered and identify the outliers. Kaunitz and his team then figure to determine how good the outlying odds are. If they’re good enough that the bet will be worth it, at the very least in the long term.

That’s precisely what Kaunitz and his team have accomplished. They created a web crawler that collected odds offered by online betting firms on soccer matches across the globe. They calculated the odds for the average and identified any outliers and then determined if betting on them would be advantageous or not.

Before investing any money, the researchers checked the concept on the historical data on closing odds and the results of 479,440 soccer matches played between 2005 between 2005 and the year 2015. The simulation returned 44 % of the times, and produced a return of 3.5 percent over the 10 years. “For an imagined stake of $50 per bet, that’s an amount of $98,865 spread across 56,435 bets,” they say.

A crucial question is whether this outcome could have been simply luck. Could they have been lucky? The team then looked at their results against the results of 2,000 simulations where they bet randomly on the identical games. In this case, the bets were paid out 39 percent of the time, resulting in an average return of -3.2 percent that is roughly a losing $93,000.

This allowed the team to determine the probability that their initial result was not a coincidence. “The chance of getting an amount greater than the amount of $98,865 from 56,435 bets utilizing the random betting strategy is less than one in a billion,” they claim.

This provided Kaunitz and his team a reason to believe that their strategy could be successful in real life however there was an issue. The average punter betting at 유로88 is not able to bet on the closing odds that can differ significantly from the odds offered prior to the game.

So Kaunitz and his team decided to replicate this too. “We have decided to run an even more realistic simulation where we made bets on odds that were available from 1 to 5 hours prior to the start of each match,” they say.

The way that odds change in the lead-up to games isn’t publicly accessible The team therefore developed an automated system that gathered these odds from betting websites across the globe from September 2015 until February 2016. Then , they tried their method using this data set.

The results were better. The bets they placed paid off 47.6 per cent of the time, and produced an 9.9 per cent return. “If each bet was $50, our method could have yielded $34,932 in profits across 6,994 bets” they claim.

A random betting strategy based on the same data resulted in a profit of 0.2 percent and an income of $825. This could be the result of the fierce competition among betting sites that provide better odds to lure punters with the form of a loss-leader strategy.

The team then tried the strategy using a technique called “paper trading,” where they make bets based on fictitious data instead of historical data. This is crucial because it lets them check whether the odds quoted are available through the bookmaker online.

In fact, they found that around 30% of the time the odds had changed when they tried to verify the odds online. In these instances they decided to rescind the bet.

However, the strategy was profitable. In the course of three months trading on paper the bets returned with a profit of 5.5 percent, making $1,128.50 on bets worth 407 of $50.

“At this point, we made the decision to bet actual money.” Kaunitz and co. Kaunitz as well.

They repeated their strategy for five months using the same method, with the exception that an operator from a human would make a bet of $50 online after analyzing the odds. In that time the bets they placed paid off 47.2 percent of the time. In addition, they earned $957.50 on 265 bets. This is an incredible yield that’s 8.5 percent.

If you’re looking for a clue, the amount of bets made was considerably less than during the period of paper trading. “The reason for this is that we didn’t have a dedicated operator who bet on every opportunity available all day long and , as a result, we were unable to take advantage of many bets that were offered,” they say.

However, the lower number of bets was not a factor. “Our paper trading and real betting activity proved the viability of the strategy,” declare Kaunitz as well as co.

This is a smart approach, and an interesting result. Kaunitz and his team discovered an Achilles’ heel within the gambling industry and capitalized on the situation to make their own profits.

However, their tale comes with an unpleasant sting. “Although we complied with the rules of the industry for sports betting however, within a couple of months we started placing bets using actual bookmakers began to restrict the amount of money we could deposit,” they say.

The bookies usually limited the stakes that they could place bets on or suggested the team to conduct a “manual examination” of the bet prior to taking it. In these situations the team was unable to place their bets.

If bookmakers were picking the bets they would like to challenge randomly this shouldn’t have affected the success of the strategy. However, Kaunitz and his colleagues say that it’s unlikely, and the actions of bookmakers could have had a significant impact on them. “Under these circumstances , we would not maintain the betting strategies we have adopted,” they say.

Kaunitz and his co. are clearly discontent: “The sports betting industry is free to advertise and provide odds to their customers, however those customers are expected to lose money and should they be successful they could be barred to betting.”

The team warns that this type of practice could be considered illegal. “Advertising products or services with the intention not to sell them in the manner described, or advertising products or services without the intention to meet a reasonable demand however with the intent to induce the customer to purchase another product (a technique often referred to as ‘bait or switch’ marketing) is considered to be false advertising and can result in monetary sanctions within the U.K., Australia, and in the United States of America,” The team claims.

They also call on the government to regulate properly the gambling industry and prevent the same kind of behavior in the future.

The success of this method is unclear. However, their findings are intriguing nevertheless.